Небинарные заклинания

[Зороастр]

Тут наверное многие устали от наших формул, а поэтому добавим немного красок.
Берем http://worldoflogs.com/reports/470kj...3D+TYPE_DAMAGE.
Рассмотрим заклинание Flametongue Attack. 1534 хитов, 1364 критов. В среднем 47% шанса критического удара. А теперь посмотрим, какое значение формула бернули даст в ряде случаев:
- шесть критов подряд (в случае 6 ударов): 1*(0,47^6)*1 = 0.01, или 1%
- семь критов подряд (в случае 7 ударов): 1*(0,47^7)*1 = 0.005, или 0,5%.
- нет критов 6 ударов подряд: 1*1*(1-0,47)^6 = 2.2%
- нет критов 7 ударов подряд: 1*1*(1-0,47)^7 = 1,2%
низковаты шансы, не так ли?
А теперь глянем непосредственно лог заклинания.
http://worldoflogs.com/reports/470kj..._DAMAGE&page=2

7 критов подряд

[20:14:58.025] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1088* (R: 145)
[20:14:58.808] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1226* (R: 73)
[20:15:00.046] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1547*
[20:15:00.820] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1593*
[20:15:02.044] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1276* (R: 151)
[20:15:02.839] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1598*
[20:15:03.646] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1601*

спустя пару ударов - 6 критов подряд

[20:15:08.450] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1385* (R: 164)
[20:15:08.840] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1559* (R: 82)
[20:15:10.022] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1584*
[20:15:11.258] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1267* (R: 150)
[20:15:12.430] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1333* (R: 70)
[20:15:13.659] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1481*

6 критов подряд

[20:17:27.257] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1523*
[20:17:28.024] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1523*
[20:17:30.035] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1171* (R: 138)
[20:17:30.861] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1465*
[20:17:31.640] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1465*
[20:17:32.856] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1318* (R: 69)

нет критов 7 ударов подряд

[20:53:54.583] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 686 (R: 67)
[20:53:58.602] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 743 (R: 73)
[20:53:59.828] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 825
[20:54:00.992] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 742 (R: 73)
[20:54:01.799] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 660 (R: 146)
[20:54:03.016] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 825
[20:54:03.812] Fawn Flametongue Attack Prince Valanar 742 (R: 73)

нет критов 8 ударов подряд

[20:26:53.976] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 836
[20:26:54.793] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 836
[20:26:56.006] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 835
[20:26:56.827] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 751 (R: 74)
[20:26:56.830] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 835
[20:26:58.001] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 835
[20:26:59.624] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 780
[20:27:00.808] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 702 (R: 69)

нет критов 10 ударов подряд (шанс 0.17%)

[20:34:46.921] Fawn Flametongue Attack  Darkfallen Archmage 790
[20:34:47.228] Fawn Flametongue Attack  Darkfallen Archmage 793
[20:34:53.667] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 648 (R: 72)
[20:34:54.054] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 720
[20:34:56.468] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 672
[20:35:00.101] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 665 (R: 65)
[20:35:01.299] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 739
[20:35:02.517] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 739
[20:35:04.117] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 739
[20:35:04.490] Fawn Flametongue Attack Darkfallen Blood Knight 739

а у такого варианта событий шанс 0,0006, или же 0,06%.

[20:26:05.070] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1334* (R: 70)
[20:26:06.270] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1482*
[20:26:07.464] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1482*
[20:26:07.862] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1482*
[20:26:08.657] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1333* (R: 70)
[20:26:11.106] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang 633 (R: 140)
[20:26:12.261] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1334* (R: 70)
[20:26:13.480] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1334* (R: 70)
[20:26:14.697] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1380*
[20:26:15.896] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1242* (R: 65)
[20:26:17.087] Fawn Flametongue Attack Deathbringer Saurfang *1380*

Весьма фартовый шаман, как поглядим. Или наоборот, неудачник. Или ему стоило пожаловатся на Близзард, поскольку те своей механикой крита ломают ему Бернулли.